Liverpool v City: who has the best finishing straight?

Horses-image-with-text-final-furlong
Okay we might have fifteen Premier League games left to play but this is a decimal world so I felt it might be fun to take a look at our and City's last ten EPL games to see who has the best run in.

I'm going to work on the assumption that both teams pick up maximum points in their next five matches and so assume we will start the final ten game run-in with our four point lead. Or for an absolute worst case scenario you could look at these fixtures from the point of view of City having clawed things back to being level. Surely it's inconceivable that they could be ahead of us as we enter the final furlong, right?

Our and City's last ten fixtures are as follows.


LFC-and-Citys-last-ten-EPL-fixtures

A few points for consideration:

  • We have five home games to City's four and possibly significant is that our last game of the season is at Anfield whereas City's is an away match vs Brighton. It seems highly likely things are going to go down to the wire so this could really be an advantage for us. It's also possible that Brighton may still be fighting to stay in the Premier League, whereas our last opponent, Wolves, are certainly going to be safe and maybe, just maybe, trying to get themselves out of the Europa League.

  • Derby wise, honours are even. We face Everton away and City face Utd away. Derby games are always massively unpredictable but you would think that Everton are an easier team for us to beat at present than Utd will be for City but having said that, I would not rule out the fact that Utd probably dislike us much more than they do City and would almost certainly prefer City to win the league.

  • We have to play two top four teams vs City's one. However that could change if Utd carry on their winning streak, perish the thought, and displace Chelsea from fourth. Seems unlikely though and so perhaps City have the edge here.

  • We only have to play three top ten teams to City's four but perhaps the most interesting point is we face six teams who are currently sitting in the bottom five whereas City only play three. You would think on paper at least that is a quite significant advantage to us.

Well that is about all that stands out to me but I'd be very interested to know if others can spot anything of note in either team's closing fixtures. There are lots of little intricacies which could come into play, such as the fact our penultimate game is against Newcastle - thanks Rafa (we hope).

In conclusion, I would say that we have the easier run in but that there's not much in it. At the end of the day, over the course of the season both ourselves and City play every team home and away, and for us to win the league we will have had to do a better job over those thirty-eight fixtures than City. So far that is what we have done and there's every reason to believe we will carry on doing. We also have less additional fixtures to contend with than City which may help our cause further.

To finish I will quote a dear friend of ours on what it means to be a Liverpool fan.

"Through good times and bad we ride the waves high and low; support, belief, and off we go"

And that's exactly what we're gonna keep on doing, all the way to the chuffing trophy.

YNWA all, YNWA Sweetpea x
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